NE @ CHI — Week 7, October 22, 2026
Best bet: NE +3.0 Best book: BetMGM — NE +3.0 (-110) Model edge: 4.7 points — the model predicts NE to win by 1.7, while the market has CHI favored by 3.0. That gap is why NE +3.0 is the play.
Why:
NE better by 0.049 EPA/play on offense over the last 6 games
NE better by 0.054 EPA/play on defense over the last 6 games
NE better by 1.3% in success rate
NE better by 0.093 EPA/play on pass offense
Injury/Weather: NE ruled out five players including two offensive linemen and three cornerbacks , while CHI ruled out RB Kyle Monangai and LB Jack Sanborn . Weather at Soldier Field forecast clear with light wind (5.7 mph) , which is neutral and does not significantly impact the edge.
Confidence: Model edge of 4.7 points exceeds the 2.5-point threshold for publication.