Atlanta Hawks @ Indiana Pacers 📍 Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN | 🕐 5:40 PM MST
The Line (DraftKings / LowVig.ag): - Spread: Indiana Pacers +5 (-103, LowVig.ag) | Atlanta Hawks -5 (-103, DraftKings) - Moneyline: Indiana Pacers +175 (LowVig.ag) | Atlanta Hawks -180 (FanDuel) - O/U: 232.5 (Over -105, BetMGM)
Season Ratings (2026-27): - Indiana Pacers: 2-5 | Net -3.5 | Off 111.0 | Def 114.4 - Atlanta Hawks: 3-4 | Net +1.0 | Off 112.4 | Def 111.4
Last 10 Games: - Indiana Pacers: Net -3.5 | Off 111.0 | Def 114.4 | ~ stable - Atlanta Hawks: Net +1.0 | Off 112.4 | Def 111.4 | ~ stable
Rest: - Indiana Pacers: 1d rest - Atlanta Hawks: 2d rest - ⚠ Indiana Pacers is on a back-to-back. The model notes 1d rest with B2B flag — they played last night.
Injuries: - Indiana Pacers: Obi Toppin (Day-To-Day - Back), T.J. McConnell (Out - Hamstring), Ivica Zubac (Out - Ankle), Johnny Furphy (Out - Knee), Ben Sheppard (Out - Knee), Tyrese Haliburton (Out - Hamstring) - Atlanta Hawks: Jalen Johnson (Day-To-Day - Ankle), Jock Landale (Out - Hip), Mouhamed Gueye (Out - Foot), Henri Veesaar (Out - Knee)
Value Analysis: - Model projection: Atlanta Hawks by 8.4 - Model inputs: Elo diff -177, adjusted net diff -4.8, rest Indiana Pacers 1d B2B / Atlanta Hawks 2d - Indiana Pacers missing rotation players: Ivica Zubac, Tyrese Haliburton - Implied spread: +8.4 → line 3.4 pts steep on Indiana Pacers — lean Atlanta Hawks -5.0 - O/U implied total: (111.0 + 112.4) × pace 102.7/100 = 229.4 - O/U actual: 232.5 → line roughly matches expected scoring
The Pick:
Spread: Atlanta Hawks -5 (DraftKings) — Model implies -8.4, actual line is -5.0, gap of 3.4 pts — cheap on Atlanta Hawks. The Pacers are playing on a back-to-back after losing to Brooklyn at home; Indiana is missing both Tyrese Haliburton and Ivica Zubac, crippling their offensive flow and paint defense.
Moneyline: Atlanta Hawks -180 (FanDuel) — Not recommended — Atlanta Hawks ML is -180, juice is too steep for value.
O/U: No play — line roughly matches the implied total.
I'm taking Atlanta Hawks -5 (Spread).