TEN @ CIN — Week 8, November 1
Best bet: TEN +13.0 Best book: DraftKings — TEN +12.5 (-108)
Model edge: 13.1 points — the model predicts TEN to win by 0.1, while the market has CIN favored by 13.0. That gap is why TEN +13.0 is the play.
Why:
CIN better by 0.135 EPA/play on offense (last 6 games), while TEN offensive concerns include Carnell Tate out with shoulder injury and Tyjae Spears out with knee injury
- CIN better by 0.041 EPA/play on defense (last 6 games)
- CIN better by 6.9% success rate
- CIN better by 0.190 EPA/play on pass offense
Injury/Weather: TEN out: WR Carnell Tate (shoulder), RB Tyjae Spears (knee), P Tommy Townsend (left knee); CIN out: S Kyle Dugger (quadricep) . Cincinnati weather Sunday expects cloudy skies with slight chance of rain shower, high near 70F, light winds . Injuries cut against TEN, but mild weather shouldn't be a significant factor.
Confidence: This pick is above the 2.5-point edge threshold that filters the published selections.