CAR @ GB — Week 8, October 29
Best bet: CAR +3.5 Best book: DraftKings — CAR +3.5 (-108)
Model edge: 2.6 points — the model predicts GB to win by 0.9, while the market has GB favored by 3.5. That gap is why CAR +3.5 is the play.
Why:
CAR offense better by 0.068 EPA/play over last 6 games
CAR defense better by 0.005 EPA/play over last 6 games
CAR rush offense better by 0.129 EPA/play
CAR success rate better by 3.4%
Injury/Weather: GB ruled out three starters (Zaire Franklin, Damien Lewis, Akayleb Evans) and is missing key offensive linemen , while Lambeau Field will have clear skies at kickoff in the low 50s with light wind —defensive losses on both sides cut against CAR's value despite favorable conditions.
Confidence: This pick surpassed a 2.5-point edge threshold, the filter for selections.