NYG @ HOU — Week 7, 2026-10-25
Best bet: NYG +10.5 Best book: BetMGM — NYG +10.5 (-110)
Model edge: 12.4 points — the model predicts NYG to win by 1.9, while the market has HOU favored by 10.5. That gap is why NYG +10.5 is the play.
Why: - HOU better by 0.054 EPA/play on defense (last 6 games), but NYG better by 0.040 on rush offense - Success rate favors HOU by 2.1%, but rest is even at 7 days for each team - NYG better by 0.004 on pass offense despite offensive line injuries - Model edge of 12.4 points far exceeds the 2.5-point threshold
Injury/Weather: NYG ruled out: Tremaine Edmunds (shoulder), Jevón Holland (concussion), Theo Johnson (neck), Greg Newsome II (concussion) ; HOU ruled out: Jalen Pitre (shoulder), Reed Blankenship (concussion/hand), David Montgomery (groin) . For HOU, Blake Fisher (thumb) also ruled out . Both teams face meaningful roster losses—NYG's secondary and linebackers depleted, HOU's running back and safeties impacted—but the model's edge encompasses these conditions.
Confidence: This pick clears the 2.5-point edge threshold by a wide margin (12.4 points), indicating strong model conviction on NYG's value at plus-10.5.