Miami Heat @ Charlotte Hornets 📍 Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC | 🕐 4:10 PM MDT
The Line (Bovada): - Spread: Charlotte Hornets +3 (+100) | Miami Heat -3 (-101) - Moneyline: Charlotte Hornets +130 (DraftKings) | Miami Heat -142 (LowVig.ag) - O/U: 230.5 (Over -105, DraftKings)
Season Ratings (2026-27): - [Charlotte Hornets]: 1-1 | Net -20.4 | Off 94.6 | Def 114.9 - [Miami Heat]: 0-2 | Net -21.3 | Off 103.8 | Def 125.1
Last 10 Games: - [Charlotte Hornets]: Net -20.4 | Off 94.6 | Def 114.9 | ~ stable - [Miami Heat]: Net -21.3 | Off 103.8 | Def 125.1 | ~ stable
Rest: - Charlotte Hornets: 1d rest ⚠ (played last night — FATIGUE RISK) - Miami Heat: 1d rest ⚠ (played last night — FATIGUE RISK)
Injuries: - [Charlotte Hornets]: Grant Williams (Day-To-Day - Hamstring), Coby White (Day-To-Day - Calf), Kon Knueppel (Day-To-Day - Hamstring), Kylan Boswell (Out - Knee) - [Miami Heat]: None notable
Value Analysis:
Model projection: Charlotte Hornets by 5.0 Model inputs: Elo diff +66, adjusted net diff +2.1, rest Charlotte Hornets 1d B2B / Miami Heat 1d B2B Implied spread: -5.0 Actual spread: +3.0 → line 8.0 pts cheap on Charlotte Hornets — lean Charlotte Hornets 3.0 O/U implied total: (94.6 + 103.8) × pace 102.4/100 = 203.2 O/U actual: 230.5 → lean Under 230.5 — implied 27.3 pts below line
The Pick:
- Spread: Charlotte Hornets +3 (+100, Bovada) — Model implies -5.0, actual line is +3.0, gap of 8.0 pts — cheap on Charlotte Hornets. Miami Heat are trending worse and have no key injuries.
- Moneyline: Not recommended — Miami Heat ML is -142, juice is too steep for value.
- O/U: Under 230.5 (-105, DraftKings) — Implied total is 203.2, which is 27.3 pts below the actual line of 230.5 — lean Under.
I'm taking Charlotte Hornets +3 (Spread), Under 230.5 (O/U).