Atlanta Hawks @ Charlotte Hornets 📍 Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC | 🕐 5:10 PM MDT
The Line (FanDuel): - Spread: Charlotte Hornets +2 (-105) | Atlanta Hawks -3 (-102) - Moneyline: Charlotte Hornets +122 (Caesars) | Atlanta Hawks -135 (Bovada) - O/U: 226.5 (Over -110)
Season Ratings (2026-27): - [Charlotte Hornets]: 1-0 | Net +5.9 | Off 107.8 | Def 102.0 - [Atlanta Hawks]: 1-0 | Net +4.2 | Off 118.9 | Def 114.7
Last 10 Games: - Charlotte Hornets: Net +5.9 | Off 107.8 | Def 102.0 | ~ stable - Atlanta Hawks: Net +4.2 | Off 118.9 | Def 114.7 | ~ stable
Rest: - [Charlotte Hornets]: 2d rest - [Atlanta Hawks]: 2d rest
Injuries: - [Charlotte Hornets]: Grant Williams (Out - Hamstring), Coby White (Out - Calf), Kon Knueppel (Out - Hamstring), Kylan Boswell (Out - Knee) - [Atlanta Hawks]: Mouhamed Gueye (Out - Foot), Henri Veesaar (Out - Knee)
Value Analysis: Model projection: Charlotte Hornets by 4.3 Model inputs: Elo diff +59, adjusted net diff +2.3, rest Charlotte Hornets 2d / Atlanta Hawks 2d Charlotte Hornets missing rotation players: Grant Williams, Coby White, Kon Knueppel, Kylan Boswell
Implied spread: -4.3 Actual spread: +2.5 → line 6.8 pts cheap on Charlotte Hornets — lean Charlotte Hornets 2.5
O/U implied total: (107.8 + 118.9) × pace 105.8/100 = 239.7 O/U actual: 226.5 → lean Over 226.5 — implied +13.2 pts above line
The Pick:
- Spread: Charlotte Hornets +2 (-105, FanDuel) — Ratings imply -4.3, actual line is +2.5, gap of 6.8 pts — cheap on Charlotte Hornets. The data shows a clear underpricing of the Hornets.
- Moneyline: Not recommended — Atlanta Hawks ML is -135 (Bovada), juice is too steep for value.
- O/U: Over 226.5 (-110, FanDuel) — Implied total is 239.7, which is 13.2 pts above the actual line of 226.5 — lean Over.
I'm taking Charlotte Hornets +2 (Spread), Over 226.5 (O/U).