LV @ NE — Week 5, 2026-10-11
Best bet: NE -3.5 Best book: DraftKings — NE -3.5 (-105) Model edge: 10.4 points — the model predicts NE to win by 13.9, while the market has NE favored by 3.5. That gap is why NE -3.5 is the play.
Why: - NE better by 0.228 EPA/play on offense over last 6 games - NE better by 0.249 EPA/play in pass offense - NE better by 11.4% in success rate - NE better by 0.203 EPA/play in rush offense
Injury/Weather: LV ruled out three WRs/G (Nailor, Thornton, Zuhn) with Jeanty questionable ; NE ruled out four cornerbacks and WR Mack Hollins and FB Reggie Gilliam . Both teams face significant depth challenges, though LV's uncertainty at RB and receiver depth cuts against the model edge while NE's CB injuries support it. Gillette is forecast cloudy, 64°F, SSE 9 mph, no precipitation — neutral weather for the outdoor game.
Confidence: 10.4-point edge exceeds the 2.5-point threshold applied to filter this pick.