Atlanta Dream @ New York Liberty 📍 Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY | 🕐 5:30 PM MDT
The Line (Caesars): - Spread: New York Liberty -3 (-103) | Atlanta Dream +2 (-105) - Moneyline: New York Liberty -153 (MyBookie.ag) | Atlanta Dream +135 (LowVig.ag) - O/U: 171.5 (Over -107)
Season Ratings (2026): - New York Liberty: 26-18 | Net +3.9 | Off 110.8 | Def 106.9 - Atlanta Dream: 30-14 | Net +8.4 | Off 111.9 | Def 103.5
Last 10 Games: - New York Liberty: Net +6.5 | Off 110.8 | Def 104.3 | ↑ trending (+2.6) - Atlanta Dream: Net +13.4 | Off 112.5 | Def 99.1 | ↑ trending (+5.0)
Rest: - New York Liberty: 2d rest - Atlanta Dream: 2d rest
Injuries: - New York Liberty: Satou Sabally (Out - Concussion), Elizabeth Balogun (Out - Not Injury Related) - Atlanta Dream: Allisha Gray (Day-To-Day - Hand), Matilde Villa (Out - Coach's Decision), Brionna Jones (Out - Leg)
Value Analysis: - New York Liberty: net +3.9 − 4.2 = +0.4 - Atlanta Dream: net +8.4 − 4.3 = +5.6 - Edge: +0.4 − (+5.6) = -5.2 → New York Liberty favored by 5.2 pts - Implied spread: -(edge -5.2 + Home court advantage 2.5) = +2.7 - Actual spread: -3.5 → line 6.2 pts steep on New York Liberty — lean Atlanta Dream +3.5 - O/U implied total: (110.8 + 112.5) × 0.92 = 205.4 - O/U actual: 171.5 → lean Over 171.5 — implied +33.9 pts above line
The Pick:
- Spread: Atlanta Dream +3.5 (-105, DraftKings) — Ratings imply +2.7, actual line is -3.5, gap of 6.2 pts — lean Atlanta Dream. New York Liberty have key injuries to Sabally and Balogun.
- Moneyline: Atlanta Dream +135 (LowVig.ag) — +135 offers value with a strong edge on the implied spread for the Dream.
- O/U: Over 171.5 (-107, Caesars) — Implied total is 205.4, which is 33.9 pts above line — lean Over.
I'm taking Atlanta Dream +3.5 (Spread), Over 171.5 (O/U).