TB @ DAL — Week 5, October 8, 2026
Best bet: TB +8.5 Best book: DraftKings — TB +8.5 (-105)
Model edge: 2.6 points — the model predicts DAL to win by 5.8, while the market has DAL favored by 8.5. That gap is why TB +8.5 is the play.
Why: - DAL better by 0.197 EPA/play on offense (last 6 games) - TB better by 0.240 EPA/play on defense (last 6 games) - DAL better by 7.4% success rate - Pass offense: DAL better by 0.260 EPA/play
Injury/Weather: TB ruled out Baker Mayfield (QB), Antoine Winfield Jr. (S), Benjamin Morrison (CB), and SirVocea Dennis (LB) , while DAL ruled out Cobie Durant (CB), DeMarvion Overshown (LB), and Drew Shelton (OT) . Mayfield is expected sidelined 3-6 weeks with a dislocated thumb, so undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels will start . The losses cut sharply against TB's edge; AT&T Stadium has a closed roof, so weather is not a factor.
Confidence: Picks are selected on plays with at least a 2.5-point model edge, and this play meets that threshold with a 2.6-point edge.