New York Liberty @ Atlanta Dream 📍 Gateway Center Arena, College Park, GA | 🕐 5:30 PM MDT
The Line (Best available): - Spread: Atlanta Dream -1 (-108) | New York Liberty +1 (-105) - Moneyline: Atlanta Dream -121 (MyBookie.ag) | New York Liberty +107 (BetRivers) - O/U: 170.5 (Over -108)
Season Ratings (2026): - [Atlanta Dream]: 30-14 | Net +8.4 | Off 111.9 | Def 103.5 - [New York Liberty]: 26-18 | Net +3.9 | Off 110.8 | Def 106.9
Last 10 Games: - [Atlanta Dream]: Net +17.3 | Off 111.2 | Def 94.0 | ↑ trending (+8.9) - [New York Liberty]: Net +9.7 | Off 109.7 | Def 100.0 | ↑ trending (+5.8)
Rest: - Atlanta Dream: 3d rest - New York Liberty: 3d rest
Injuries: - Atlanta Dream: Allisha Gray (Out - Hand), Matilde Villa (Out - Coach's Decision), Brionna Jones (Out - Leg) - New York Liberty: Satou Sabally (Out - Concussion), Elizabeth Balogun (Out - Not Injury Related)
Value Analysis: - [Atlanta Dream]: net +8.4 − 8.6 (Allisha Gray Out, Matilde Villa Out, Brionna Jones Out) = +2.5 - [New York Liberty]: net +3.9 − 4.2 (Satou Sabally Out, Elizabeth Balogun Out) = +1.4 - Edge: +2.5 − (+1.4) = +1.1 → Atlanta Dream favored by 1.1 pts - Implied spread: -(edge +1.1 + Home court advantage 2.5) = -3.6 - Actual spread: -1.5 → line 2.1 pts cheap on Atlanta Dream — lean Atlanta Dream -1.5 - O/U implied total: (111.2 + 109.7) × 0.92 = 203.2 - O/U actual: 170.5 → lean Over 170.5 — implied +32.7 pts above line
The Pick:
Spread: Atlanta Dream -1 (-108, LowVig.ag) — Ratings imply -3.6, actual line is -1.5, gap of 2.1 pts — cheap on Atlanta Dream. New York Liberty lose Satou Sabally (Out - Concussion), weakening their offense.
Moneyline: Not recommended — Atlanta Dream ML is -121, juice is too steep for value.
O/U: Over 170.5 (-108) — Implied total of 203.2 points vs the actual line of 170.5 is a significant gap suggesting high-scoring potential with both teams trending upward offensively in their last ten games. I'm taking Atlanta Dream -1 (Spread), Over 170.5 (O/U).