NYJ @ CHI — Week 4, 2026-10-04
Best bet: CHI -3.5 Best book: BetMGM — CHI -3.5 (-105)
Model edge: the model predicts CHI to win by 19.4, while the market has CHI favored by 3.5. That gap is why CHI -3.5 is the play.
Why: - CHI’s offense (EPA/play, last 6 games) is better by 0.285 [1]. - CHI’s defense (EPA/play, last 6 games) is better by 0.127 [1]. - Success rate: CHI is better by 7.7% [1]. - Pass offense (EPA/play): CHI is better by 0.360 [1].
Injury/Weather: no live injury/weather data was available.
Confidence: this pick cleared the 2.5-point edge threshold used to filter picks.