Las Vegas Aces @ Golden State Valkyries 📍 Chase Center, San Francisco, CA | 🕐 2:00 PM MDT
The Line (Bovada): - Spread: Golden State Valkyries +1.5 (-106) | Las Vegas Aces -1.5 (-104) - Moneyline: Golden State Valkyries +110 | Las Vegas Aces -114 - O/U: 160.5 (Over -108)
Season Ratings (2026): - [Golden State Valkyries]: 32-12 | Net +9.1 | Off 108.2 | Def 99.1 - [Las Vegas Aces]: 31-13 | Net +7.0 | Off 112.9 | Def 105.9
Last 10 Games: - Golden State Valkyries: Net +8.6 | Off 121.1 | Def 112.5 | ~ stable - Las Vegas Aces: Net +5.9 | Off 114.0 | Def 108.1 | ↓ fading (-1.1)
Rest: - Golden State Valkyries: 2d rest - Las Vegas Aces: 3d rest
Injuries: - Golden State Valkyries: Iliana Rupert (Out - Not Injury Related) - Las Vegas Aces: Stephanie Talbot (Day-To-Day - Leg), Dana Evans (Out - Knee), NaLyssa Smith (Out - Leg)
Value Analysis: - Golden State Valkyries: net +9.1 − 2.0 (Iliana Rupert Out, 15 mpg est. → -2.0) = +6.9 - Las Vegas Aces: net +7.0 − 5.3 (Dana Evans Out, 15 mpg → -2.0; NaLyssa Smith Out, 24 mpg → -3.2) = +1.4 - Edge: +6.9 − (+1.4) = +5.6 → Golden State Valkyries favored by 5.6 pts - Implied spread: -(edge +5.6 + Home court advantage 2.5) = -8.1 - Actual spread: +1.5 → line 9.6 pts cheap on Golden State Valkyries — lean Golden State Valkyries 1.5 - O/U implied total: (121.1 + 114.0) × 0.92 = 216.3 - O/U actual: 160.5 → lean Over 160.5 — implied +55.8 pts above line
The Pick:
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries +1.5 (-106, Bovada) — Ratings imply -8.1, actual line is +1.5, gap of 9.6 pts — cheap on Golden State Valkyries. Las Vegas Aces lose multiple key players (Dana Evans Out - Knee and NaLyssa Smith Out - Leg), reducing their effectiveness.
- Moneyline: Golden State Valkyries +110 (Bovada) — Ratings favor them by 5.6 pts, actual line is +1.5, creating strong value at +110 odds.
- O/U: Over 160.5 (-108, Bovada) — Implied total of 216.3 far above the posted line at 160.5.
I'm taking Golden State Valkyries +1.5 (Spread), Over 160.5 (O/U).