Atlanta Dream @ Washington Mystics 📍 Entertainment & Sports Arena, Washington, DC | 🕐 5:10 PM MDT
The Line (Caesars / LowVig.ag): - Spread: Washington Mystics +2 (-104) | Atlanta Dream -3 (-103) - Moneyline: Washington Mystics +132 (Caesars) | Atlanta Dream -145 (Bovada) - O/U: 166.5 (Over -105, DraftKings)
Season Ratings ([season]): - Washington Mystics: 28-16 | Net +1.3 | Off 104.6 | Def 103.3 - Atlanta Dream: 30-14 | Net +8.4 | Off 111.9 | Def 103.5
Last 10 Games: - Washington Mystics: Net -16.2 | Off 89.5 | Def 105.7 | ↓ fading (-17.5) - Atlanta Dream: Net +16.2 | Off 105.7 | Def 89.5 | ↑ trending (+7.8)
Rest: - Washington Mystics: 3d rest - Atlanta Dream: 3d rest
Injuries: - Washington Mystics: None notable - Atlanta Dream: None notable
Value Analysis: - Washington Mystics: net +1.3 − [adj] (no adjustments) = +1.3 - Atlanta Dream: net +8.4 − [adj] (no adjustments) = +8.4 - Edge: +1.3 − (+8.4) = -7.1 → Washington Mystics favored by 7.1 pts - Implied spread: -(edge -7.1 + Home court advantage 2.5) = +4.6 - Actual spread: +2.5 → line 2.1 pts steep on Washington Mystics — lean Atlanta Dream -3 - O/U implied total: (89.5 + 105.7) × 0.92 = 179.6 - O/U actual: 166.5 → lean Over 166.5 — implied +13.1 pts above line
The Pick:
- Spread: Atlanta Dream -3 (-103, LowVig.ag) — Ratings imply +4.6, actual line is +2.5, gap of 2.1 pts — steep on Washington Mystics. Atlanta Dream are trending up offensively in their last ten games.
- Moneyline: Not recommended — Washington Mystics ML is +132, juice is too steep for value.
- O/U: Over 166.5 (-105, DraftKings) — Implied total is 179.6, which is 13.1 pts above the actual line of 166.5.
I'm taking Atlanta Dream -3 (Spread), Over 166.5 (O/U).