Las Vegas Aces @ Indiana Fever 📍 Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN | 🕐 4:40 PM MDT
The Line (DraftKings): - Spread: Indiana Fever -1 (+100) | Las Vegas Aces +1 (-103) - Moneyline: Indiana Fever -110 (Bovada) | Las Vegas Aces +100 (LowVig.ag) - O/U: 183.5 (Over -108, LowVig.ag)
Season Ratings (2026): - [Home team]: Indiana Fever: 28-16 | Net +6.8 | Off 115.0 | Def 108.3 - [Away team]: Las Vegas Aces: 31-13 | Net +7.0 | Off 112.9 | Def 105.9
Last 10 Games: - Indiana Fever: Net -19.5 | Off 104.9 | Def 124.4 | ↓ fading (-26.3) - Las Vegas Aces: Net +19.5 | Off 124.4 | Def 104.9 | ↑ trending (+12.5)
Rest: - Indiana Fever: 2d rest - Las Vegas Aces: 2d rest
Injuries: - Indiana Fever: None notable - Las Vegas Aces: None notable
Value Analysis: - Indiana Fever: net +6.8 − [adj] (no adjustments) = +6.8 - Las Vegas Aces: net +7.0 − [adj] (no adjustments) = +7.0 - Edge: -1.1 − (+10.8) = -11.8 → Indiana Fever favored by 11.8 pts - Implied spread: -(edge -11.8 + Home court advantage 2.5) = +9.3 - Actual spread: -1.5 → line 10.8 pts steep on Indiana Fever — lean Las Vegas Aces +1.5 - O/U implied total: (104.9 + 124.4) × 0.92 = 211.0 - O/U actual: 183.5 → lean Over 183.5 — implied +27.5 pts above line
The Pick:
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces +1 (-103, DraftKings) — Ratings imply -9.3, actual line is -1.5, gap of 7.8 pts — steep on Indiana Fever. Indiana’s L10 form has been significantly worse than their season average.
- Moneyline: Las Vegas Aces +100 (LowVig.ag) — +100 ML number is within the acceptable range; ratings strongly favor Las Vegas and the line is underpriced.
- O/U: Over 183.5 (-108, LowVig.ag) — Implied total is 211.0, which is 27.5 pts above the actual line of 183.5 — lean Over. I'm taking Las Vegas Aces +1 (Spread), Over 183.5 (O/U).