PHI @ CHI — Week 3, 2026-09-28
Best bet: CHI +3.5 Best book: BetMGM — CHI +4.0 (-120) WARNING: BetMGM's line of +4.0 differs from the model's reference spread of +3.5. The extra 0.5 points can change game outcomes independently of the pick.
Model edge: 7.3 points — the model predicts CHI to win by 3.8, while the market has PHI favored by 3.5. That gap is why CHI +3.5 is the play.
Why: - CHI better by 0.125 EPA/play on offense over the last six games - CHI better by 6.1% on success rate - PHI better by 0.172 EPA/play on defense, but offense differential favors the home team - CHI better by 0.076 EPA/play on pass offense
Injury/Weather: PHI has ruled out WR Hollywood Brown, TE Dallas Goedert, and T Fred Johnson ; CHI QB Tyson Bagent has cleared concussion protocol with no game status designation , though Caleb Williams is listed as out . Weather forecast for Monday shows sunshine with some clouds, high 72°F, with NNE winds at 5–10 mph — favorable conditions that cut slightly against neither team. PHI's key offensive losses support the pick.
Confidence: This pick passed the 2.5-point edge threshold, reflecting the model's confidence in a data-driven structural advantage.