TEN @ NYG — Week 3, 2026-09-27
Best bet: NYG -2.5 Best book: DraftKings — NYG -2.5 (-110)
Model edge: 13.3 points — the model predicts NYG to win by 15.8, while the market has NYG favored by 2.5. That gap is why NYG -2.5 is the play.
Why: - NYG better by 0.152 EPA/play on offense over the last 6 games - NYG better by 0.249 EPA/play on pass offense - NYG better by 0.065 EPA/play on defense over the last 6 games - NYG better by 5.7% success rate
Injury/Weather: Giants have Brian Burns (ankle), Deonte Banks (calf), and Tyler Nubin (calf) questionable; Titans have Cor'Dale Flott (quad) and Tyjae Spears (ankle) questionable.
Game-time conditions expected: 62°F, 88% rain chance, 18 mph winds with gusts to 41 mph. Weather cuts against the pass-heavy model edge slightly.
Confidence: Filtered at 2.5-point edge threshold, a statistically meaningful signal.