Washington Mystics @ Atlanta Dream 📍 Gateway Center Arena, College Park, GA | 🕐 5:00 PM MDT
The Line (BetMGM/FanDuel): - Spread: Atlanta Dream -7 (-105) | Washington Mystics +7 (-106) - Moneyline: Atlanta Dream -290 (MyBookie.ag) | Washington Mystics +256 (BetUS) - O/U: 164.5 (Over -105, DraftKings)
Season Ratings (2026): - [Atlanta Dream]: 30-14 | Net +8.5 | Off 111.9 | Def 103.5 - [Washington Mystics]: 28-16 | Net +1.3 | Off 104.6 | Def 103.3
Last 10 Games: - [Atlanta Dream]: Net +19.2 | Off 117.3 | Def 98.0 | ↑ trending (+10.7) - [Washington Mystics]: Net +10.0 | Off 114.8 | Def 104.9 | ↑ trending (+8.7)
Rest: - [Atlanta Dream]: 4d rest - [Washington Mystics]: 3d rest
Injuries: - [Atlanta Dream]: None notable - [Washington Mystics]: None notable
Value Analysis: - [Atlanta Dream]: net +8.5 (no adjustments) = +8.5 - [Washington Mystics]: net +1.3 (no adjustments) = +1.3 - Edge: +8.5 − (+1.3) = +7.2 → Atlanta Dream favored by 7.8 pts - Implied spread: -(edge +7.8 + Home court advantage 2.5) = -10.3 - Actual spread: -7.5 → line 2.8 pts cheap on Atlanta Dream — lean Atlanta Dream -7.5 - O/U implied total: (117.3 + 114.8) × 0.92 = 213.5 - O/U actual: 164.5 → lean Over 164.5 — implied +49.0 pts above line
The Pick:
- Spread: Atlanta Dream -7 (-105, BetMGM) — Ratings imply -10.3, actual line is -7.5, gap of 2.8 pts — cheap on Atlanta Dream. Washington Mystics are trending up but short rest could be a factor.
- Moneyline: Not recommended — Atlanta Dream ML is -290, juice is too steep for value.
- O/U: Over 164.5 (-105, DraftKings) — Implied total is 213.5, which is 49.0 pts above the actual line of 164.5 — lean Over.
I'm taking Atlanta Dream -7 (Spread), Over 164.5 (O/U).