Toronto Tempo @ Connecticut Sun 📍 Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT | 🕐 5:00 PM MDT
The Line (DraftKings): - Spread: Connecticut Sun -2 (-102) | Toronto Tempo +2 (+103) - Moneyline: Connecticut Sun -129 (Caesars) | Toronto Tempo +115 (Bovada) - O/U: 167.5 (Over -104, FanDuel)
Season Ratings (2026): - Connecticut Sun: 10-33 | Net -12.1 | Off 97.4 | Def 109.5 - Toronto Tempo: 11-32 | Net -10.7 | Off 105.5 | Def 116.1
Last 10 Games: - Connecticut Sun: Net -18.5 | Off 93.7 | Def 112.3 | ↓ fading (-6.4) - Toronto Tempo: Net -19.4 | Off 98.8 | Def 118.1 | ↓ fading (-8.7)
Rest: - Connecticut Sun: 2d rest - Toronto Tempo: 2d rest
Injuries: - Connecticut Sun: None notable - Toronto Tempo: None notable
Value Analysis: - Connecticut Sun: net -14.0 (blended season -12.1, L10 -18.5) - Toronto Tempo: net -13.3 (blended season -10.7, L10 -19.4) - Edge: -14.0 − (-13.3) = -0.7 → Connecticut Sun favored by 0.7 pts - Implied spread: -(edge -0.7 + Home court advantage 2.5) = -1.8 - Actual spread: -2.5 → line roughly matches ratings - O/U implied total: (93.7 + 98.8) × 0.92 = 177.1 - O/U actual: 167.5 → lean Over 167.5 — implied +9.6 pts above line
The Pick:
- Spread: Connecticut Sun -2 (-102, DraftKings) — Ratings imply -1.8, actual line is -2.5, gap of 0.7 pts — roughly matches ratings. Toronto Tempo are fading.
- Moneyline: Not recommended — Connecticut Sun ML is -129, juice is too steep for value.
- O/U: Over 167.5 (-104, FanDuel) — Implied total is +9.6 pts above the actual line of 167.5 — lean Over. I'm taking Connecticut Sun -2 (Spread), Over 167.5 (O/U).