Connecticut Sun @ Washington Mystics 📍 Entertainment & Sports Arena, Washington, DC | 🕐 5:30 PM MDT
The Line (BetRivers, Fanatics, DraftKings): - Spread: Washington Mystics -16 (-105) | Connecticut Sun +16 (-110) - Moneyline: Washington Mystics -1200 (BetMGM) | Connecticut Sun +950 (DraftKings) - O/U: 159.5 (Over -106, FanDuel)
Season Ratings (2026): - Washington Mystics: 26-16 | Net +0.8 | Off 104.2 | Def 103.4 - Connecticut Sun: 10-32 | Net -12.0 | Off 97.6 | Def 109.7
Last 10 Games: - Washington Mystics: Net +8.0 | Off 112.3 | Def 104.3 | ↑ trending (+7.2) - Connecticut Sun: Net -18.2 | Off 94.6 | Def 112.8 | ↓ fading (-6.2)
Rest: - Washington Mystics: 2d rest - Connecticut Sun: 2d rest
Injuries: - Washington Mystics: None notable - Connecticut Sun: None notable
Value Analysis: - Washington Mystics: net +0.8 (no adjustments) - Connecticut Sun: net -12.0 (no adjustments) - Edge: +0.8 − (-12.0) = +12.8 → Washington Mystics favored by 12.8 pts - Implied spread: -(edge +12.8 + Home court advantage 2.5) = -15.3 - Actual spread: -16.5 → line 1.2 pts steep on Connecticut Sun — lean Washington Mystics -16.5 - O/U implied total: (112.3 + 94.6) × 0.92 = 190.3 - O/U actual: 159.5 → lean Over 159.5 — implied +30.8 pts above line
The Pick:
- Spread: Washington Mystics -16 (-105, BetRivers) — Ratings imply -15.3, actual line is -16.5, gap of 1.2 pts — steep on Connecticut Sun. Connecticut Sun fading by -6.2 points over L10.
- Moneyline: Washington Mystics -1200 (BetMGM) — Not recommended — Washington Mystics ML is -1200, juice is too steep for value.
- O/U: Over 159.5 (-106, FanDuel) — Implied total is 190.3, which is 30.8 pts above the actual line of 159.5 — lean Over.
I'm taking Washington Mystics -16 (Spread), Over 159.5 (O/U).