Washington Mystics @ Indiana Fever 📍 Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN | 🕐 2:00 PM MDT
The Line (Caesars): - Spread: Indiana Fever -6 (-105) | Washington Mystics +6 (-108) - Moneyline: Indiana Fever -245 (Fanatics) | Washington Mystics +207 (LowVig.ag) - O/U: 178.5 (Over -106)
Season Ratings (2026): - [Indiana Fever]: 27-14 | Net +7.7 | Off 116.2 | Def 108.4 - [Washington Mystics]: 25-16 | Net +0.4 | Off 103.9 | Def 103.5
Last 10 Games: - Indiana Fever: Net +10.8 | Off 121.1 | Def 110.3 | ↑ trending (+3.1) - Washington Mystics: Net +4.8 | Off 110.6 | Def 105.8 | ↑ trending (+4.4)
Rest: - Indiana Fever: 2d rest - Washington Mystics: 3d rest
Injuries: - Indiana Fever: None notable - Washington Mystics: None notable
Value Analysis: - [Indiana Fever]: net +7.7 (no adjustments) = +7.7 - [Washington Mystics]: net +0.4 (no adjustments) = +0.4 - Edge: +7.7 − (+0.4) = +7.3 → Indiana Fever favored by 7.3 pts - Implied spread: -(edge +7.3 + Home court advantage 2.5) = -9.8 - Actual spread: -6.5 → line 3.3 pts cheap on Indiana Fever — lean Indiana Fever -6.5 - O/U implied total: (121.1 + 110.6) × 0.92 = 213.2 - O/U actual: 178.5 → lean Over 178.5 — implied +34.7 pts above line
The Pick:
- Spread: Indiana Fever -6.5 (-105, Caesars) — Ratings imply -9.8, actual line is -6.5, gap of 3.3 pts — cheap on Indiana Fever.
- Moneyline: Not recommended — Indiana Fever ML is -245, juice is too steep for value.
- O/U: Over 178.5 (-106, Caesars) — Implied total is 213.2, which is 34.7 pts above the actual line of 178.5 — lean Over.
I'm taking Indiana Fever -6.5 (Spread), Over 178.5 (O/U).