Indiana Fever @ Toronto Tempo 📍 Air Canada Centre, Toronto, Ontario | 🕐 Friday Sep 18 at 5:30 PM MDT
The Line (DraftKings): - Spread: Toronto Tempo +14 (-108) | Indiana Fever -14 (-106) - Moneyline: Toronto Tempo +800 | Indiana Fever -900 - O/U: 187.5 (Over -103)
Season Ratings (2026): - [Toronto Tempo]: 11-29 | Net -9.4 | Off 105.9 | Def 115.3 - [Indiana Fever]: 26-14 | Net +7.4 | Off 115.9 | Def 108.4
Last 10 Games: - [Toronto Tempo]: Net -15.0 | Off 100.9 | Def 115.8 | ↓ fading (-5.6) - [Indiana Fever]: Net +8.1 | Off 116.7 | Def 108.6 | ~ stable
Rest: - Toronto Tempo: 20d rest - Indiana Fever: 21d rest
Injuries: - [Toronto Tempo]: None notable - [Indiana Fever]: None notable
Value Analysis: - Toronto Tempo: net -9.4 (no adjustments) = -9.4 - Indiana Fever: net +7.4 (no adjustments) = +7.4 - Edge: -18.7 → Toronto Tempo favored by 18.7 pts - Implied spread: -(edge -18.7 + Home court advantage 2.5) = +16.2 - Actual spread: +14.5 → line 1.7 pts steep on Toronto Tempo — lean Indiana Fever +14.5 - O/U implied total: (100.9 + 116.7) × 0.92 = 200.2 - O/U actual: 187.5 → lean Over 187.5 — implied +12.7 pts above line
The Pick:
- Spread: Indiana Fever -14 (-106, FanDuel) — Ratings imply +16.2, actual line is +14.5, gap of 1.7 pts — steep on Indiana Fever. Toronto Tempo fading by 5.6 points over L10.
- Moneyline: Not recommended — Indiana Fever ML is -900, juice is too steep for value.
- O/U: Over 187.5 (-103, DraftKings) — Implied total of 200.2, which is +12.7 pts above the actual line of 187.5 — lean Over.
I'm taking Indiana Fever -14 (Spread), Over 187.5 (O/U).