Connecticut Sun @ Toronto Tempo 📍 Air Canada Centre, Toronto, Ontario | 🕐 5:00 PM MDT
The Line (DraftKings): - Spread: Toronto Tempo -8 (-102) | Connecticut Sun +7 (-102) - Moneyline: Toronto Tempo -300 (BetMGM) | Connecticut Sun +275 (Caesars) - O/U: 169.0 (Over -108)
Season Ratings (2026): - [Toronto Tempo]: 6-5 | Net +0.9 | Off 109.2 | Def 108.3 - [Connecticut Sun]: 2-11 | Net -15.1 | Off 94.7 | Def 109.8
Last 10 Games: - [Toronto Tempo]: Net +1.2 | Off 112.1 | Def 110.9 | ~ stable - [Connecticut Sun]: Net -11.6 | Off 97.0 | Def 108.5 | ↑ trending (+3.5)
Rest: - [Toronto Tempo]: 3d rest - [Connecticut Sun]: 2d rest
Injuries: - Toronto Tempo: Kiki Rice (Out - Ankle), Temi Fagbenle (Out - Shoulder) - Connecticut Sun: Hailey Van Lith (Out - Ankle), Brittney Griner (Day-To-Day - Ribs), Aneesah Morrow (Out - Leg)
Value Analysis: - [Toronto Tempo]: net +1.0 − 5.6 (Kiki Rice Out/Doubtful, Temi Fagbenle Out) = -4.7 - [Connecticut Sun]: net -15.1 − 5.6 (Hailey Van Lith Out, Aneesah Morrow Out) = -19.7 - Edge: -4.7 − (-19.7) = +15.0 → Toronto Tempo favored by 15.0 pts - Implied spread: -(edge +15.0 + Home court advantage 2.5) = -17.5 - Actual spread: -8.5 → line 9.0 pts cheap on Toronto Tempo — lean Toronto Tempo -8.5 - O/U implied total: (112.1 + 97.0) × 0.92 = 192.4 - O/U actual: 169.0 → lean Over 169.0 — implied +23.4 pts above line
The Pick:
Spread: Toronto Tempo -8 (-102, DraftKings) — Ratings imply -17.5, actual line is -8.5, gap of 9.0 pts — cheap on Toronto Tempo. Connecticut Sun are losing multiple key players and trending upward.
Moneyline: Not recommended — Toronto Tempo ML is -300, juice is too steep for value.
O/U: Over 169.0 (-108) — Implied total of 192.4 far exceeds the actual line of 169.0 due to both teams trending up offensively in recent games.
I'm taking Toronto Tempo -8 (Spread), Over 169.0 (O/U).