New York Liberty @ Connecticut Sun 📍 Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT | 🕐 5:00 PM MDT
The Line (DraftKings): - Spread: Connecticut Sun +12 (-102) | New York Liberty -13 (-105) - Moneyline: Connecticut Sun +600 (Caesars) | New York Liberty -810 (BetOnline.ag) - O/U: 163.5 (Over -105)
Season Ratings (2026): - Connecticut Sun: 2-10 | Net -15.3 | Off 94.5 | Def 109.8 - New York Liberty: 7-4 | Net +5.5 | Off 107.8 | Def 102.3
Last 10 Games: - Connecticut Sun: Net -13.8 | Off 95.6 | Def 109.4 | ↑ trending (+1.5) - New York Liberty: Net +2.4 | Off 106.5 | Def 104.1 | ↓ fading (-3.1)
Rest: - Connecticut Sun: 3d rest - New York Liberty: 2d rest
Injuries: - Connecticut Sun: Kennedy Burke (Day-To-Day - Illness), Brittney Griner (Out - Ribs) - New York Liberty: Sabrina Ionescu (Out - Back)
Value Analysis: - Connecticut Sun: net -15.3 − 3.5 (Brittney Griner Out) = -18.8 - New York Liberty: net +5.5 − 4.1 (Sabrina Ionescu Out) = +1.4 - Edge: -18.8 − (+1.4) = -20.2 → Connecticut Sun favored by 20.2 pts - Implied spread: -(edge -20.2 + Home court advantage 2.5) = +17.7 - Actual spread: +12.5 → line 5.2 pts steep on Connecticut Sun — lean New York Liberty +12.5 - O/U implied total: (95.6 + 106.5) × 0.92 = 185.9 - O/U actual: 163.5 → lean Over 163.5 — implied +22.4 pts above line
The Pick:
- Spread: New York Liberty -13 (-105, Bovada) — Ratings imply +17.7, actual line is +12.5, gap of 5.2 pts — steep on New York Liberty. Connecticut Sun losing Brittney Griner (Out - Ribs), weakening their defense.
- Moneyline: Not recommended — New York Liberty ML is -810, juice is too steep for value.
- O/U: Over 163.5 (-105, DraftKings) — Implied total is 185.9, which is 22.4 pts above the actual line of 163.5 — lean Over.
I'm taking New York Liberty -13 (Spread), Over 163.5 (O/U).