Portland Fire @ Los Angeles Sparks 📍 Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA | 🕐 5:00 PM MDT
The Line (Bovada): - Spread: Los Angeles Sparks -8 (-105) | Portland Fire +7 (-103) - Moneyline: Los Angeles Sparks -290 (FanDuel) | Portland Fire +256 (BetUS) - O/U: 176.5 (Over -106)
Season Ratings (2026): - Los Angeles Sparks: 4-6 | Net -5.5 | Off 108.6 | Def 114.1 - Portland Fire: 6-6 | Net -3.8 | Off 104.7 | Def 108.5
Last 10 Games: - Los Angeles Sparks: Net -5.5 | Off 108.6 | Def 114.1 | ~ stable - Portland Fire: Net -2.9 | Off 103.1 | Def 106.0 | ~ stable
Rest: - Los Angeles Sparks: 2d rest - Portland Fire: 2d rest
Injuries: - Los Angeles Sparks: None notable - Portland Fire: Sarah Ashlee Barker (Day-To-Day - Quadriceps), Karlie Samuelson (Day-To-Day - Achilles)
Value Analysis: - Los Angeles Sparks: net -5.5 − 0 ([Player] Out/Doubtful) = -5.5 - Portland Fire: net -3.8 − 2.9 (Sarah Ashlee Barker Day-To-Day, Karlie Samuelson Day-To-Day) = -6.7 - Edge: -5.5 − (-6.7) = +1.2 → Los Angeles Sparks favored by 1.2 pts - Implied spread: -(edge +1.2 + Home court advantage 2.5) = -0.7 - Actual spread: -8.0 → line 7.5 pts steep on Los Angeles Sparks — lean Portland Fire +8.0 - O/U implied total: (108.6 + 103.1) × 0.92 = 194.8 - O/U actual: 176.5 → lean Over 176.5 — implied +18.3 pts above line
The Pick:
- Spread: Portland Fire +8 (-103, Bovada) — Ratings imply -0.7, actual line is -8.0, gap of 7.3 pts — steep on Los Angeles Sparks. The Sparks are overpriced despite their home court.
- Moneyline: Portland Fire +256 (BetUS) — Ratings favor the underdog significantly; the ML odds align with strong value for a turnaround win.
- O/U: Over 176.5 (-106, Bovada) — Implied total of 194.8 is well above line of 176.5, indicating higher scoring potential.
I'm taking Portland Fire +8 (Spread), Over 176.5 (O/U).