Seattle Storm @ Minnesota Lynx 📍 Target Center, Minneapolis, MN | 🕐 11:00 AM MDT
The Line (DraftKings): - Spread: Minnesota Lynx -14 (-102) | Seattle Storm +14 (-103) - Moneyline: Minnesota Lynx -835 | Seattle Storm +675 - O/U: 161.5 (Over -105)
Season Ratings (2026): - [Minnesota Lynx]: 8-2 | Net +13.0 | Off 111.2 | Def 98.1 - [Seattle Storm]: 3-8 | Net -7.3 | Off 95.1 | Def 102.4
Last 10 Games: - Minnesota Lynx: Net +13.0 | Off 111.2 | Def 98.1 | ~ stable - Seattle Storm: Net -6.9 | Off 93.9 | Def 100.8 | ~ stable
Rest: - Minnesota Lynx: 2d rest - Seattle Storm: 3d rest
Injuries: - [Minnesota Lynx]: Napheesa Collier (Out - Ankle), Dorka Juhasz (Out - Foot), Emma Cechova (Out - Knee) - [Seattle Storm]: Taina Mair (Out - Coach's Decision), Taylor Thierry (Out - Coach's Decision), Lexie Brown (Out - Not Injury Related), Ezi Magbegor (Out - Foot)
Value Analysis: Minnesota Lynx net +13.0 − 6.3 ([Napheesa Collier Out, Dorka Juhasz Out, Emma Cechova Out]) = +6.7 Seattle Storm net -7.2 − 5.3 ([Taina Mair Out, Taylor Thierry Out, Lexie Brown Out, Ezi Magbegor Out]) = -12.5 Edge: +6.7 − (-12.5) = +19.2 → Minnesota Lynx favored by 19.2 pts Implied spread: -(edge +19.2 + Home court advantage 2.5) = -21.7 Actual spread: -14.5 → line 7.2 pts cheap on Minnesota Lynx — lean Minnesota Lynx -14.5 O/U implied total: (111.2 + 93.9) × 0.92 = 188.7 O/U actual: 161.5 → lean Over 161.5 — implied +27.2 pts above line
The Pick:
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx -14 (-102, DraftKings) — Ratings imply -21.7, actual line is -14.5, gap of 7.2 pts — lean on the cheap price for Minnesota Lynx with key players out.
- Moneyline: Not recommended — Minnesota Lynx ML at -835 is too steep despite implied value.
- O/U: Over 161.5 (-105, DraftKings) — Implied total of 188.7 is significantly higher than the line, lean Over as offenses are trending up.
I'm taking Minnesota Lynx -14 (Spread), Over 161.5 (O/U).