Connecticut Sun @ Chicago Sky 📍 Wintrust Arena, Chicago, IL | 🕐 5:30 PM MDT
The Line (Caesars): - Spread: Chicago Sky -7 (+100) | Connecticut Sun +6 (-105) - Moneyline: Chicago Sky -250 (FanDuel) | Connecticut Sun +241 (LowVig.ag) - O/U: 163.5 (Over -103)
Season Ratings (2026): - [Chicago Sky]: 3-6 | Net -6.1 | Off 98.8 | Def 104.8 - [Connecticut Sun]: 2-9 | Net -16.0 | Off 93.7 | Def 109.7
Last 10 Games: - [Chicago Sky]: Net -6.1 | Off 98.8 | Def 104.8 | ~ stable - [Connecticut Sun]: Net -14.0 | Off 94.6 | Def 108.7 | ↑ trending (+2.0)
Rest: - Chicago Sky: 3d rest - Connecticut Sun: 3d rest
Injuries: - Chicago Sky: Gabriela Jaquez (Out - Knee), Courtney Vandersloot (Out - Knee), DiJonai Carrington (Out - Foot), Rickea Jackson (Out - Knee) - Connecticut Sun: Kennedy Burke (Day-To-Day - Illness), Aaliyah Edwards (Out - Head)
Value Analysis: - Chicago Sky: net -6.1 − 11.7 ([Gabriela Jaquez Out, Courtney Vandersloot Out, DiJonai Carrington Out, Rickea Jackson Out]) = -17.8 - Connecticut Sun: net -15.4 (− 2.5 [Aaliyah Edwards Out]) = -17.9 - Edge: -17.8 − (-17.9) = +0.1 → Chicago Sky favored by 0.1 pts - Implied spread: -(edge +0.1 + Home court advantage 2.5) = -2.6 - Actual spread: -7.0 → line 4.4 pts steep on Chicago Sky — lean Connecticut Sun +7.0 - O/U implied total: (98.8 + 94.6) × 0.92 = 177.9 - O/U actual: 163.5 → lean Over 163.5 — implied +14.4 pts above line
The Pick:
- Spread: Connecticut Sun +7 (-105, Bovada) — Ratings imply -2.6, actual line is -7.0, gap of 4.4 pts — steep on Chicago Sky with multiple key players Out.
- Moneyline: Connecticut Sun +241 (LowVig.ag) — Strong lean to the underdog based on injury-induced weakness in Chicago; this ML number provides good value.
- O/U: Over 163.5 (-103, LowVig.ag) — Implied total is 177.9, which is 14.4 pts above the actual line of 163.5 — lean Over due to both teams trending offensively and facing key defensive losses.
I'm taking Connecticut Sun +7 (Spread), Over 163.5 (O/U).