Atlanta Dream @ Indiana Fever 📍 Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN | 🕐 5:00 PM MDT
The Line (DraftKings): - Spread: Indiana Fever -1 (-105) | Atlanta Dream +1 (+108) - Moneyline: Indiana Fever -110 (Fanatics) | Atlanta Dream +105 (BetRivers) - O/U: 172.5 (Over -109, BetRivers)
Season Ratings (2026): - [Home team]: Indiana Fever: 4-4 | Net +3.6 | Off 108.6 | Def 105.0 - [Away team]: Atlanta Dream: 6-2 | Net +7.1 | Off 106.6 | Def 99.5
Last 10 Games: - Indiana Fever: Net +3.6 | Off 108.6 | Def 105.0 | ~ stable - Atlanta Dream: Net +7.1 | Off 106.6 | Def 99.5 | ~ stable
Rest: - Indiana Fever: 5d rest - Atlanta Dream: 2d rest
Injuries: - Indiana Fever: Caitlin Clark (Day-To-Day - Back), Damiris Dantas (Day-To-Day - Personal) - Atlanta Dream: Brionna Jones (Out - Knee)
Value Analysis: - [Home team]: net +3.6 (no adjustments) - [Away team]: net +7.1 − 2.0 (Brionna Jones Out) = +5.1 - Edge: +3.6 − (+5.1) = -1.5 → Indiana Fever favored by 1.5 pts - Implied spread: -(edge -1.5 + Home court advantage 2.5) = -1.0 - Actual spread: -1.5 → line roughly matches ratings - O/U implied total: (108.6 + 106.6) × 0.92 = 198.0 - O/U actual: 172.5 → lean Over 172.5 — implied +25.5 pts above line
The Pick:
Spread: Indiana Fever -1 (-105, DraftKings) — Ratings imply -1.0, actual line is -1.5, gap of 0.5 pts — roughly matches ratings. Atlanta Dream lose key player Brionna Jones (Out), weakening their defense.
Moneyline: Not recommended — Indiana Fever ML is -110, juice is too steep for value.
O/U: Over 172.5 (-109, BetRivers) — Implied total is 198.0, which is 25.5 pts above the actual line of 172.5 — lean Over.
I'm taking Indiana Fever -1 (Spread), Over 172.5 (O/U).