Seattle Storm @ Dallas Wings 📍 College Park Center, Arlington, TX | 🕐 6:00 PM MDT
The Line (BetMGM): - Spread: Dallas Wings -12 (-105) | Seattle Storm +12 (-105) - Moneyline: Dallas Wings -600 | Seattle Storm +480 - O/U: 166.5 (Over -105)
Season Ratings (2026): - [Dallas Wings]: 5-3 | Net +5.4 | Off 112.7 | Def 107.3 - [Seattle Storm]: 3-6 | Net -5.0 | Off 98.9 | Def 103.9
Last 10 Games: - [Dallas Wings]: Net +5.4 | Off 112.7 | Def 107.3 | ~ stable - [Seattle Storm]: Net -5.0 | Off 98.9 | Def 103.9 | ~ stable
Rest: - [Dallas Wings]: 4d rest - [Seattle Storm]: 2d rest
Injuries: - Dallas Wings injuries: Alysha Clark (Day-To-Day - Elbow), Awak Kuier (Out - Wrist) - Seattle Storm injuries: Taylor Thierry (Out - Coach's Decision), Dominique Malonga (Out - Concussion), Taina Mair (Out - Coach's Decision), Ezi Magbegor (Out - Foot)
Value Analysis: - Dallas Wings: net +5.4 − 1.9 ([Awak Kuier Out, 14 mpg → -1.9]) = +3.5 - Seattle Storm: net -5.0 − 6.9 ([Taylor Thierry Out, 7 mpg → -0.9; Dominique Malonga Out, 27 mpg → -3.5; Taina Mair Out, 3 mpg → -0.4; Ezi Magbegor Out, 15 mpg est. → -2.0]) = -11.9 - Edge: +3.5 − (-11.9) = +15.4 → Dallas Wings favored by 15.4 pts - Implied spread: -(edge +15.4 + Home court advantage 2.5) = -17.9 - Actual spread: -12.5 → line 5.4 pts cheap on Dallas Wings — lean Dallas Wings -12.5 - O/U implied total: (112.7 + 98.9) × 0.92 = 194.7 - O/U actual: 166.5 → lean Over 166.5 — implied +28.2 pts above line
The Pick:
- Spread: Dallas Wings -12 (-105, BetMGM) — Ratings imply -17.9, actual line is -12.5, gap of 5.4 pts — cheap on Dallas Wings. Seattle Storm have multiple key players out due to injury.
- Moneyline: Not recommended — Dallas Wings ML is -600, juice is too steep for value.
- O/U: Over 166.5 (-105, BetMGM) — Implied total of 194.7 exceeds the actual line by +28.2 pts, leaning strongly towards Over.
I'm taking Dallas Wings -12 (Spread), Over 166.5 (O/U).