Las Vegas Aces @ Golden State Valkyries 📍 Chase Center, San Francisco, CA | 🕐 1:30 PM MDT
The Line (FanDuel, BetMGM): - Spread: Golden State Valkyries +1 (-102) | Las Vegas Aces -2 (-105) - Moneyline: Golden State Valkyries +115 (LowVig.ag) | Las Vegas Aces -130 (DraftKings) - O/U: 168.0 (Over -110, MyBookie.ag)
Season Ratings (2026): - [Golden State Valkyries]: 5-2 | Net +10.2 | Off 110.0 | Def 99.8 - [Las Vegas Aces]: 4-3 | Net +2.6 | Off 109.5 | Def 106.9
Last 10 Games: - [Golden State Valkyries]: Net +10.2 | Off 110.0 | Def 99.8 | ~ stable - [Las Vegas Aces]: Net +2.6 | Off 109.5 | Def 106.9 | ~ stable
Rest: - [Golden State Valkyries]: 3d rest - [Las Vegas Aces]: 3d rest
Injuries: - Golden State Valkyries: Iliana Rupert (Out - Not Injury Related) - Las Vegas Aces: Dana Evans (Out - Leg), Jewell Loyd (Day-To-Day - Leg)
Value Analysis: - Golden State Valkyries: net +10.2 − 2.0 (Iliana Rupert Out, 15 mpg est. → -2.0) = +8.2 - Las Vegas Aces: net +2.6 − 2.0 (Dana Evans Out, 15 mpg est. → -2.0) = +0.6 - Edge: +8.2 − (+0.6) = +7.6 → Golden State Valkyries favored by 7.6 pts - Implied spread: -(edge +7.6 + Home court advantage 2.5) = -10.1 - Actual spread: +1.5 → line 11.6 pts cheap on Golden State Valkyries — lean Golden State Valkyries 1.5 - O/U implied total: (110.0 + 109.5) × 0.92 = 201.9 - O/U actual: 168.0 → lean Over 168.0 — implied +33.9 pts above line
The Pick:
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries +1.5 (-104, FanDuel) — Ratings imply -10.1, actual line is +1.5, gap of 11.6 pts — cheap on Golden State Valkyries. Iliana Rupert and Dana Evans are key players Out for their respective teams.
- Moneyline: Golden State Valkyries +115 (LowVig.ag) — Ratings imply -10.1, actual line is +115, gap of 11.6 pts — lean Golden State Valkyries at a great value.
- O/U: Over 168.0 (-110, MyBookie.ag) — Implied total is 201.9, which is 33.9 points above the actual line of 168.0 — lean Over.
I'm taking Golden State Valkyries +1.5 (Spread), Over 168.0 (O/U).