Atlanta Dream @ Portland Fire 📍 Moda Center, Portland, OR | 🕐 8:00 PM MDT
The Line (DraftKings): - Spread: Portland Fire +8 (-102) | Atlanta Dream -9 (-106) - Moneyline: Portland Fire +320 (Caesars) | Atlanta Dream -360 (LowVig.ag) - O/U: 164.5 (BetMGM)
Season Ratings (2026): - Portland Fire: 5-3 | Net -1.4 | Off 105.3 | Def 106.7 - Atlanta Dream: 4-2 | Net +1.9 | Off 104.2 | Def 102.3
Last 10 Games: - Portland Fire: Net -1.4 | Off 105.3 | Def 106.7 | ~ stable - Atlanta Dream: Net +1.9 | Off 104.2 | Def 102.3 | ~ stable
Rest: - Portland Fire: 2d rest - Atlanta Dream: 2d rest
Injuries: - Portland Fire: Bridget Carleton (Day-To-Day - Back), Teja Oblak (Day-To-Day - Quadriceps), Sarah Ashlee Barker (Day-To-Day - Foot) - Atlanta Dream: Brionna Jones (Out - Knee)
Value Analysis: - Portland Fire: net -1.4 (no adjustments) - Atlanta Dream: net +1.9 − 2.0 (Brionna Jones Out) = -0.1 - Edge: -1.4 − (-0.1) = -1.3 → Portland Fire favored by 1.3 pts - Implied spread: -(edge -1.3 + Home court advantage 2.5) = -1.2 - Actual spread: +8.5 → line 9.7 pts cheap on Portland Fire — lean Portland Fire +8.5 - O/U implied total: (105.3 + 104.2) × 0.92 = 192.7 - O/U actual: 164.5 → lean Over 164.5 — implied +28.2 pts above line
The Pick:
- Spread: Portland Fire +8 (-102, DraftKings) — Ratings imply -1.3, actual line is +8.5, gap of 9.7 pts — cheap on Portland Fire. Atlanta Dream lose Brionna Jones (Out - Knee), weakening their defense.
- Moneyline: Not recommended — Atlanta Dream ML is -360, juice is too steep for value.
- O/U: Over 164.5 (-105, BetMGM) — Implied total is 192.7, which is 28.2 pts above the actual line of 164.5 — lean Over.
I'm taking Portland Fire +8 (Spread), Over 164.5 (O/U).