Las Vegas Aces @ Dallas Wings 📍 College Park Center, Arlington, TX | 🕐 6:10 PM MDT
The Line (LowVig.ag and DraftKings): - Spread: Dallas Wings +4 (-108) | Las Vegas Aces -4 (-105) - Moneyline: Dallas Wings +157 (BetOnline.ag) | Las Vegas Aces -165 (BetMGM) - O/U: 178.5 (Over -108)
Season Ratings (2026): - Dallas Wings: 4-3 | Net +4.5 | Off 111.4 | Def 106.9 - Las Vegas Aces: 4-2 | Net +4.8 | Off 109.3 | Def 104.6
Last 10 Games: - Dallas Wings: Net +4.5 | Off 111.4 | Def 106.9 | ~ stable - Las Vegas Aces: Net +4.8 | Off 109.3 | Def 104.6 | ~ stable
Rest: - Dallas Wings: 4d rest - Las Vegas Aces: 5d rest
Injuries: - Dallas Wings: Paige Bueckers (Day-To-Day - Leg), Alanna Smith (Day-To-Day - Illness) - Las Vegas Aces: Dana Evans (Out - Leg)
Value Analysis: - Dallas Wings: net +4.5 − 0 ([no adj]) = +4.5 - Las Vegas Aces: net +4.8 − 2.0 (Dana Evans Out) = +2.8 - Edge: +4.5 − (+2.8) = +1.7 → Dallas Wings favored by 1.7 pts - Implied spread: -(edge +1.7 + Home court advantage 2.5) = -4.2 - Actual spread: +4.0 → line 8.2 pts cheap on Dallas Wings — lean Dallas Wings 4.0 - O/U implied total: (111.4 + 109.3) × 0.92 = 203.0 - O/U actual: 178.5 → lean Over 178.5 — implied +24.5 pts above line
The Pick:
- Spread: Dallas Wings +4 (-108, LowVig.ag) — Ratings imply -4.2, actual line is +4.0, gap of 8.2 pts — cheap on Dallas Wings. With Dana Evans out for Las Vegas Aces, their defense becomes less effective.
- Moneyline: Dallas Wings +157 (BetOnline.ag) — +157 is within the acceptable range; ratings strongly favor Dallas despite minor injury concerns.
- O/U: Over 178.5 (-108, LowVig.ag) — Implied total is 203.0, which is 24.5 pts above the actual line of 178.5 — lean Over.
I'm taking Dallas Wings +4 (Spread), Over 178.5 (O/U).