Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs 📍 Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX | 🕐 6:40 PM MDT
The Line (LowVig.ag): - Spread: San Antonio Spurs -3 (-106) | Oklahoma City Thunder +3 (+100) - Moneyline: San Antonio Spurs -150 (Fanatics) | Oklahoma City Thunder +136 (LowVig.ag) - O/U: 219.5 (Over -107)
Season Ratings ([2025-26]): - [Home team]: San Antonio Spurs: 62-20 | Net +8.4 | Off 118.7 | Def 110.4 - [Away team]: Oklahoma City Thunder: 64-18 | Net +11.1 | Off 117.6 | Def 106.5
Last 10 Games: - San Antonio Spurs: Net +9.9 | Off 114.9 | Def 105.0 | ↑ trending (+1.5) - Oklahoma City Thunder: Net +10.7 | Off 120.1 | Def 109.4 | ~ stable
Rest: - San Antonio Spurs: 2d rest - Oklahoma City Thunder: 2d rest
Injuries: - San Antonio Spurs: David Jones Garcia (Out - Ankle) - Oklahoma City Thunder: Jalen Williams (Out - Hamstring), Ajay Mitchell (Out - Calf), Thomas Sorber (Out - Knee)
Value Analysis: San Antonio Spurs: net +8.4 − 0.7 ([David Jones Garcia Out]) = +8.2 Oklahoma City Thunder: net +11.1 − 8.2 ([Jalen Williams Out, Ajay Mitchell Out, Thomas Sorber Out]) = +2.9 Edge: +8.2 − (+2.9) = +5.4 → San Antonio Spurs favored by 5.4 pts Implied spread: -(edge +5.4 + Home court advantage 2.5) = -7.9 Actual spread: -3.5 → line 4.4 pts cheap on San Antonio Spurs — lean San Antonio Spurs -3.5 O/U implied total: (114.9 + 120.1) × 0.92 = 216.2 O/U actual: 219.5 → line roughly matches expected scoring
The Pick:
- Spread: San Antonio Spurs -3 (-106, LowVig.ag) — Ratings imply -7.9, actual line is -3.5, gap of 4.4 pts — cheap on San Antonio Spurs. Oklahoma City Thunder lose three key contributors (Jalen Williams, Ajay Mitchell, Thomas Sorber).
- Moneyline: San Antonio Spurs -150 (Fanatics) — Ratings strongly favor the Spurs despite their injury; line is underpriced.
- O/U: Under 219.5 (-107, LowVig.ag) — Implied total is 216.2, which matches the actual line of 219.5 — lean Under. I'm taking San Antonio Spurs -3 (Spread), Under 219.5 (O/U).