Connecticut Sun @ Portland Fire 📍 Moda Center, Portland, OR | 🕐 8:00 PM MDT
The Line (DraftKings): - Spread: Portland Fire -6 (-108) | Connecticut Sun +6 (-105) - Moneyline: Portland Fire -225 (Caesars) | Connecticut Sun +205 (BetRivers) - O/U: 166.5 (Over -108)
Season Ratings (2026): - [Home team]: Portland Fire: 4-3 | Net -3.5 | Off 106.8 | Def 110.3 - [Away team]: Connecticut Sun: 1-7 | Net -18.0 | Off 94.0 | Def 112.0
Last 10 Games: - Portland Fire: Net -3.5 | Off 106.8 | Def 110.3 | ~ stable - Connecticut Sun: Net -18.0 | Off 94.0 | Def 112.0 | ~ stable
Rest: - [Home team]: 2d rest - [Away team]: 2d rest
Injuries: - Portland Fire: None notable - Connecticut Sun: Brittney Griner (Out - Ribs), Leila Lacan (Out - Not Injury Related)
Value Analysis: - [Home team]: net -3.5 (no adjustments) - [Away team]: net -18.0 − 5.6 (Brittney Griner Out, 27 mpg → -3.6; Leila Lacan Out, 15 mpg est. → -2.0) = -23.6 - Edge: -3.5 − (-23.6) = +20.1 → Portland Fire favored by 20.1 pts - Implied spread: -(edge +20.1 + Home court advantage 2.5) = -22.6 - Actual spread: -6.5 → line 16.1 pts cheap on Portland Fire — lean Portland Fire -6.5 - O/U implied total: (106.8 + 94.0) × 0.92 = 184.7 - O/U actual: 166.5 → lean Over 166.5 — implied +18.2 pts above line
The Pick:
Spread: Portland Fire -6 (-108, DraftKings) — Ratings imply -22.6, actual line is -6.5, gap of 16.1 pts — cheap on Portland Fire. Brittney Griner and Leila Lacan are both out for Connecticut Sun, weakening their offensive production.
Moneyline: Not recommended — Portland Fire ML is -225, juice is too steep for value.
O/U: Over 166.5 (-108, DraftKings) — Implied total is 184.7, which is 18.2 pts above the actual line of 166.5 — lean Over. I'm taking Portland Fire -6 (Spread), Over 166.5 (O/U).