San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder 📍 Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK | 🕐 6:40 PM MDT
The Line (DraftKings): - Spread: Oklahoma City Thunder -5 (-105) | San Antonio Spurs +5 (+105) - Moneyline: Oklahoma City Thunder -170 | San Antonio Spurs +164 - O/U: 217.0 (Over -107)
Season Ratings (2025-26): - [Home team]: Oklahoma City Thunder: 64-18 | Net +11.1 | Off 117.6 | Def 106.5 - [Away team]: San Antonio Spurs: 62-20 | Net +8.4 | Off 118.7 | Def 110.4
Last 10 Games: - Oklahoma City Thunder: Net +10.7 | Off 119.8 | Def 109.1 | ~ stable - San Antonio Spurs: Net +11.4 | Off 115.0 | Def 103.6 | ↑ trending (+3.0)
Rest: - Oklahoma City Thunder: 2d rest - San Antonio Spurs: 2d rest
Injuries: - Oklahoma City Thunder: Jalen Williams (Out - Hamstring), Ajay Mitchell (Out - Calf), Thomas Sorber (Out - Knee) - San Antonio Spurs: David Jones Garcia (Out - Ankle)
Value Analysis: - Oklahoma City Thunder: net +11.0 − 8.2 (Jalen Williams Out/Doubtful) = +2.7 - San Antonio Spurs: net +9.3 − 0.7 (David Jones Garcia Out/Doubtful) = +8.6 - Edge: +2.7 − (+8.6) = -5.9 → Oklahoma City Thunder favored by 5.9 pts - Implied spread: -(edge -5.9 + Home court advantage 2.5) = +3.4 - Actual spread: -5.5 → line 8.9 pts steep on Oklahoma City Thunder — lean San Antonio Spurs +5.5 - O/U implied total: (119.8 + 115.0) × 0.92 = 216.0 - O/U actual: 217.0 → line roughly matches expected scoring
The Pick:
- Spread: San Antonio Spurs +5 (-110, LowVig.ag) — Ratings imply +3.4, actual line is -5.5, gap of 8.9 pts — steep on Oklahoma City Thunder. The Spurs are trending upward and have a better recent net rating compared to their season average.
- Moneyline: San Antonio Spurs +164 (DraftKings) — Ratings strongly favor the Spurs, who despite being underdogs, show positive momentum in recent play, making this line attractive for value.
- O/U: Over 217.0 (-107, LowVig.ag) — Implied total is 216.0, which matches the actual line of 217.0 → lean Over as both teams are trending offensively upward and likely to push scoring.
I'm taking San Antonio Spurs +5 (Spread), Over 217.0 (O/U).