Los Angeles Sparks @ Las Vegas Aces 📍 Michelob Ultra Arena, Las Vegas, NV | 🕐 6:00 PM MDT
The Line (DraftKings): - Spread: Las Vegas Aces -8 (-105) | Los Angeles Sparks +8 (-108) - Moneyline: Las Vegas Aces -340 (Bovada) | Los Angeles Sparks +300 (BetRivers) - O/U: 181.5 (Over -108)
Season Ratings (2026): - [Las Vegas Aces]: 4-1 | Net +7.2 | Off 108.6 | Def 101.4 - [Los Angeles Sparks]: 2-3 | Net -8.7 | Off 110.1 | Def 118.8
Last 10 Games: - Las Vegas Aces: Net +7.2 | Off 108.6 | Def 101.4 | ~ stable - Los Angeles Sparks: Net -8.7 | Off 110.1 | Def 118.8 | ~ stable
Rest: - Las Vegas Aces: 6d rest - Los Angeles Sparks: 2d rest
Injuries: - Las Vegas Aces: Dana Evans (Out - Leg) - Los Angeles Sparks: Sania Feagin (Out - Leg), Nneka Ogwumike (Day-To-Day - Hand)
Value Analysis: - Las Vegas Aces: net +7.2 − 2.0 (Dana Evans Out, 15 mpg est. → -2.0) = +5.2 - Los Angeles Sparks: net -8.7 − 0.4 (Sania Feagin Out, 3 mpg → -0.4) = -9.1 - Edge: +5.2 − (-9.1) = +14.3 → Las Vegas Aces favored by 14.3 pts - Implied spread: -(edge +14.3 + Home court advantage 2.5) = -16.8 - Actual spread: -8.5 → line 8.3 pts cheap on Las Vegas Aces — lean Las Vegas Aces -8.5 - O/U implied total: (108.6 + 110.1) × 0.92 = 201.2 - O/U actual: 181.5 → lean Over 181.5 — implied +19.7 pts above line
The Pick:
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces -8 (-105, DraftKings) — Ratings imply -16.8, actual line is -8.5, gap of 8.3 pts — cheap on Las Vegas Aces. The Sparks lose key players Sania Feagin (Out - Leg) and Nneka Ogwumike (Day-To-Day - Hand).
- Moneyline: Not recommended — Las Vegas Aces ML is -340, juice is too steep for value.
- O/U: Over 181.5 (-108, DraftKings) — Implied total of 201.2 is 19.7 pts above the actual line of 181.5 — lean Over.
I'm taking Las Vegas Aces -8 (Spread), Over 181.5 (O/U).