Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs 📍 Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX | 🕐 6:40 PM MDT
The Line (Fanatics): - Spread: San Antonio Spurs -2.5 (-110) | Oklahoma City Thunder +2.5 (-101) - Moneyline: San Antonio Spurs -124 (FanDuel) | Oklahoma City Thunder +120 (Bovada) - O/U: 218.0 (Over -107)
Season Ratings (2025-26): - [Home team]: San Antonio Spurs: 62-20 | Net +8.4 | Off 118.7 | Def 110.4 - [Away team]: Oklahoma City Thunder: 64-18 | Net +11.1 | Off 117.6 | Def 106.5
Last 10 Games: - San Antonio Spurs: Net +12.4 | Off 116.3 | Def 103.9 | ↑ trending (+4.0) - Oklahoma City Thunder: Net +13.8 | Off 123.4 | Def 109.6 | ↑ trending (+2.7)
Rest: - San Antonio Spurs: 2d rest - Oklahoma City Thunder: 2d rest
Injuries: - [Home team]: Dylan Harper (Day-To-Day - Hip), De'Aaron Fox (Day-To-Day - Ankle), David Jones Garcia (Out - Ankle) - [Away team]: Jalen Williams (Day-To-Day - Hamstring), Thomas Sorber (Out - Knee)
Value Analysis: San Antonio Spurs: net +8.4 − 0.7 (David Jones Garcia Out, 6 mpg → -0.7) = +8.9 Oklahoma City Thunder: net +11.1 − 2.2 (Thomas Sorber Out, 20 mpg est. → -2.2) = +9.7 Edge: +8.9 − (+9.7) = -0.8 → San Antonio Spurs favored by 0.8 pts Implied spread: -(edge -0.8 + Home court advantage 2.5) = -1.7 Actual spread: -2.5 → line roughly matches ratings O/U implied total: (116.3 + 123.4) × 0.92 = 220.5 O/U actual: 218.0 → line roughly matches expected scoring
The Pick:
- Spread: Oklahoma City Thunder +2.5 (-101, DraftKings) — Ratings imply -1.7, actual line is -2.5, gap of 0.8 pts — San Antonio Spurs are overpriced on this spread. Thunder are playing slightly better basketball in their last 10 games compared to the season averages.
- Moneyline: Oklahoma City Thunder +120 (Bovada) — Ratings strongly favor the Thunder, making a bet at +120 a solid play with value considering San Antonio's recent injuries and slight dip from seasonal form.
- O/U: Under 218.0 (-107, LowVig.ag) — Implied total is 220.5, which is roughly even with the actual line of 218.0 → lean Under.
I'm taking Oklahoma City Thunder +2.5 (Spread), Under 218.0 (O/U).