Los Angeles Sparks @ Phoenix Mercury 📍 Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ | 🕐 Thursday May 21 at 8:00 PM MDT
The Line (Bovada): - Spread: Phoenix Mercury -3 (-105) | Los Angeles Sparks +3 (-108) - Moneyline: Phoenix Mercury -150 (FanDuel) | Los Angeles Sparks +140 (Caesars) - O/U: 177.5 (Over -108)
Season Ratings (2026): - [Phoenix Mercury]: 2-3 | Net +4.3 | Off 109.7 | Def 105.4 - [Los Angeles Sparks]: 1-3 | Net -13.6 | Off 107.7 | Def 121.3
Last 10 Games: - [Phoenix Mercury]: Net +4.3 | Off 109.7 | Def 105.4 | ~ stable - [Los Angeles Sparks]: Net -13.6 | Off 107.7 | Def 121.3 | ~ stable
Rest: - [Phoenix Mercury]: 2d rest - [Los Angeles Sparks]: 4d rest
Injuries: - Phoenix Mercury: Monique Akoa Makani (Out - Not Injury Related), Sami Whitcomb (Out - Knee) - Los Angeles Sparks: Sania Feagin (Out - Leg)
Value Analysis: - Phoenix Mercury: net +4.3 − 4.0 (Monique Akoa Makani Out, 15 mpg est. → -2.0; Sami Whitcomb Out, 15 mpg est. → -2.0) = +0.3 - Los Angeles Sparks: net -13.6 − 0.4 (Sania Feagin Out, 3 mpg → -0.4) = -14.0 - Edge: +0.3 − (-14.0) = +14.3 → Phoenix Mercury favored by 14.3 pts - Implied spread: -(edge +14.3 + Home court advantage 2.5) = -16.8 - Actual spread: -3.0 → line 13.8 pts cheap on Phoenix Mercury — lean Phoenix Mercury -3.0 - O/U implied total: (109.7 + 107.7) × 0.92 = 200.0 - O/U actual: 177.5 → lean Over 177.5 — implied +22.5 pts above line
The Pick:
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury -3 (-105, Bovada) — Ratings imply -16.8, actual line is -3.0, gap of 13.8 pts — cheap on Phoenix Mercury. The spread is undervaluing the Phoenix Mercury's strong ratings and home court advantage.
- Moneyline: Phoenix Mercury -150 (FanDuel) — Within acceptable range; ratings strongly favor Phoenix Mercury despite key player absences.
- O/U: Over 177.5 (-108, Bovada) — Implied total is 200.0, which is significantly higher than the actual line of 177.5.
I'm taking Phoenix Mercury -3 (Spread), Over 177.5 (O/U).